Evidence on A.I. Exposure, Earnings, and Workforce Pell

The labor market is changing faster than the data we use to measure it.

Opportunity Data is an independent research platform that brings together credential earnings, AI exposure scoring, and higher education accountability research.

Public data sources. Fully reproducible. Built with students and learners in mind, for institutions, policymakers, and workforce leaders.

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Coming soon Labor demand signals from BLS data, layered onto programs.

Tools

Three interactive toolsets, each grounded in public federal data and reproducible end-to-end.

AI & Labor Market Disruption

AI Exposure Index

Which occupations are most exposed to A.I. automation, and which academic programs feed into them? Three-dimensional scoring across digital intensity, human interaction, and physical work. 772 occupations, 1,786 programs.

By Occupation (SOC) By Academic Program (CIP)
Workforce Pell · Effective July 1, 2026

Workforce Pell

From eligibility screening to state implementation. Approximate the federal earnings test program by program, track each governor's progress in standing up the approval pipeline, and read how the threshold is constructed.

Value-Added Earnings Test State Readiness Tracker Value-Added Methodology
Program Earnings

Earnings Data

What graduates actually earn at 1, 5, and 10 years, drawn from Census Bureau administrative wage records. Trajectories, within-program variation, and where suppression limits what we can see. 900+ institutions, 33 states, three credential levels.

Explore Earnings Data
Census PSEO BLS OES O*NET IPEDS College Scorecard

Research

Interactive Analysis

The Childcare Credential Ladder

April 2026

A bachelor's in child development earns about the same as a sub-associate certificate. PSEO earnings for Human Development and Family Studies graduates, paired with BLS OEWS wages and MIT Living Wage data across states.

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Technical Note

AI Exposure Index Methodology

April 2026

How the AI Exposure Index is constructed: variable selection from O*NET, dimension scoring for digital intensity, human interaction shield, and physical anchor, and the crosswalk from occupations to academic programs.

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Technical Note

The Limits of PSEO

2026

What the Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes data can and can't tell us about program value. UI coverage gaps, small-cell suppression, and non-random missingness, layered out.

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Selected Writing


Get in touch

Institutions use this data to benchmark programs, shape strategy, and respond to accountability requirements. If you need custom analysis for your state, system, or college, want to collaborate on research, or have a question about the methodology, send a message.