Evidence on A.I. Exposure, Earnings, and Workforce Pell

The labor market is changing faster than the data we use to understand it.

Opportunity Data explores how education translates into economic opportunity. We analyze traditional career pathways, compare earnings and degree premiums across fields of study, measure underemployment, and provide data that supports accountability in higher education and workforce development.

To support this work, we publish:

  • AI exposure scores for 772 occupations and 1,786 academic programs, based on O*NET occupational data.
  • Post-secondary earnings outcomes from Census PSEO administrative wage records, showing what graduates actually earn.
  • A state-by-state tracker of Workforce Pell implementation and workforce-focused federal aid policies.

Our mission is to provide transparent, accessible data that helps students, educators, policymakers, and employers make better decisions about education, work, and economic mobility.

Explore the tools

Tools

Four interactive toolsets, each grounded in public data sources and reproducible end-to-end.

AI & Labor Market Disruption

AI Exposure Index

Which occupations are most exposed to A.I. automation, and which academic programs feed into them? Three-dimensional scoring across digital intensity, human interaction, and physical work. 772 occupations, 1,786 programs.

By Occupation (SOC) By Academic Program (CIP)
Workforce Pell · Effective July 1, 2026

Workforce Pell

From eligibility screening to state implementation. Approximate the federal earnings test program by program, track each governor's progress in standing up the approval pipeline, and read how the threshold is constructed.

Value-Added Earnings Test State Readiness Tracker Value-Added Methodology
Program Earnings

Postsecondary Earnings Data

What graduates actually earn at 1, 5, and 10 years, drawn from Census Bureau administrative wage records. Trajectories, within-program variation, and where suppression limits what we can see. 900+ institutions, 33 states, three credential levels.

Explore Earnings Data
By Field of Study

Recent Graduate Outcomes

How 73 bachelor's fields compare on underemployment, unemployment, early-career pay, and the number of graduates, mapped together so you can see both the odds and the scale. New York Fed outcomes paired with IPEDS completion counts.

By Field (Snapshot) BETA Underemployment Over Time BETA
Census PSEO BLS OES O*NET IPEDS College Scorecard NY Fed

Research

Original research and commentary on Workforce Pell, childcare workforce policy, AI exposure in higher education, and community college earnings outcomes. Interactive analyses paired with published op-eds in national and trade press.

Author Analysis

The Teacher Credential Ladder

June 2026 · Interactive

Does a master's in teacher preparation pay back the cost? PSEO earnings for graduates of CIPs 13.10 (Special Ed), 13.12 (Subject Area/Secondary), and 13.13 (Levels & Methods/Elementary) at BA and MA, paired with NY Fed underemployment and BLS K-12 teacher wages.

View analysis →
Author Analysis

The Childcare Credential Ladder

April 2026 · Interactive

A bachelor's in child development earns about the same as a sub-associate certificate. PSEO earnings for Human Development and Family Studies graduates, paired with BLS OEWS wages and MIT Living Wage data across states.

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State Analysis · Colorado

Colorado's Childcare Credential Ladder

May 2026 · Interactive

Colorado-only cut of the national ladder. PSEO earnings for graduates of 16 Colorado colleges in Human Development and Family Studies, paired with the Colorado Department of Early Childhood's published lead-teacher vs. kindergarten-teacher wage comparison and Child Care Aware of America's 2024 Colorado prices.

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In the press

Opportunity Data research and commentary has been published in The Colorado Sun, Washington Monthly, and Community College Daily, published by the American Association of Community Colleges.

Methodology

How the tools work. Data sources, formulas, scoring, and the limits of what the data can show. Neutral documentation, not commentary.

Technical Note

AI Exposure Index Methodology

April 2026

How the AI Exposure Index is constructed: variable selection from O*NET, dimension scoring for digital intensity, human interaction shield, and physical anchor, and the crosswalk from occupations to academic programs.

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Technical Note

The Limits of PSEO

2026

What the Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes data can and can't tell us about program value. UI coverage gaps, small-cell suppression, and non-random missingness, layered out.

Read methodology →

Get in touch

For research, collaboration, or feedback, send a message.