Opportunity Data is built around a simple premise: the information that matters most for choosing a workforce program is rarely presented in a form that supports good decisions.
Earnings data exists. Outcome records exist. But they are scattered across datasets, buried in technical tables, or collapsed into a single summary number that obscures more than it reveals. A student trying to understand what a certificate or degree might mean for their career five or ten years out has almost nowhere to turn.
This project is an effort to change that.
Built with students in mind
The primary audience for Opportunity Data is the prospective student. Someone weighing whether to enroll in a welding certificate, a nursing associate degree, or a four-year business program. Someone trying to understand not just what the average graduate earns, but how much outcomes vary, how earnings grow over time, and where the data is too thin to draw conclusions at all.
That means the data has to be presented clearly, honestly, and in a form that is ready for decision-making. Not as raw tables or academic output, but as interactive tools that answer the questions people actually ask:
- What do graduates of this program earn at Year 1, Year 5, Year 10?
- How wide is the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile?
- Does this program show sustained earnings growth, or does it plateau?
- How does this institution compare to others offering the same credential?
- How much of the data is actually observable, and how much is suppressed?
Useful to all stakeholders
While the student perspective drives the design, the same data and analysis serve other audiences equally well. Institutional leaders evaluating their program portfolio. State workforce boards allocating training funds. Policymakers weighing accountability frameworks. Researchers studying labor market returns across credential levels.
Each of these stakeholders benefits from seeing the same underlying structure: trajectories, not snapshots. Distributions, not averages. Transparent coverage, not silent omissions.
What we provide
Opportunity Data covers three credential levels using the U.S. Census Bureau's Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes (PSEO) dataset: short-term certificates, associate degrees, and bachelor's degrees. The data includes earnings at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles at 1, 5, and 10 years after graduation, spanning 33 states and more than 900 institutions.
The interactive tools include:
- Earnings by College (certificates, associate, bachelor's) -- select a state and institution to see earnings spread, trajectory by program category, and full data tables with export
- Earnings by Program (certificates, associate, bachelor's) -- compare how the same field of study performs across different colleges and states
- Value-Added Test -- benchmark institutions against expected outcomes, adjusting for the students they actually serve
- Skilled Trades Analysis -- a closer look at trade programs where short-term certificates often outperform expectations
The analysis section includes a technical discussion of data suppression explaining why a substantial share of programs have no reportable outcomes, and a methodology note on the value-added approach.
If you have questions, suggestions, or would like to collaborate, please reach out.
Opportunity Data is an independent research project by Benazir Rowe, PhD. Data sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes (PSEO), 2025Q4 release. All earnings figures in 2023 dollars (CPI-U adjusted).