How earnings grow, how much they vary, and how programs compare -- across certificates, associate, and bachelor's degrees. 900+ colleges, 33 states, and where the evidence runs thin.
Built on the U.S. Census Bureau's Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes data across 33 states and two decades of graduation cohorts.
Explore the dataPSEO coverage depends on state participation in the Census Bureau's LEHD program and data-sharing agreements with postsecondary institutions. The states below have earnings data for at least one degree level. States like Texas, Ohio, Colorado, and New York offer some of the richest program-level detail.
Each tool shows earnings at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile at 1, 5, and 10 years after graduation. Select any state and institution to see program-level trajectories, variation, and where data is suppressed.
Under the proposed Workforce Pell rules, short-term certificate programs must show that graduates earn enough above the poverty line to justify tuition costs. This tool approximates that federal test using the best available public data.
Select any state and institution to see which programs pass, which fall short, and where suppression makes the answer unknowable.
Run the testA recent NBER paper claims CCB graduates face a $2,000 earnings penalty. The data behind that headline has coverage problems, concentration problems, and methodological gaps that should give policymakers pause.
Read article →Do bachelor's degrees from community colleges deliver comparable labor market value? Using Census Bureau earnings data at 1, 5, and 10 years post-graduation, CCB graduates match or exceed traditional BA earnings in most fields by Year 5.
View analysis →A short introduction to the project's central argument: trajectory over time, variation within programs, and what missingness reveals about the limits of workforce earnings data.
Read article →Why missingness is not random, and why small programs, small institutions, and rural access are often hardest to see in public outcomes data.
Read article →Data sources, formula, population filters, cohort pooling rationale, and the five key approximations behind the Value-Added Earnings Test tool.
Read article →Why short-term credentials should be judged through trajectory, spread, and context rather than a single early-earnings snapshot.
Read article →Most workforce program evaluation collapses to a single number: return on investment. That number tells you the average outcome at one point in time. It does not tell you how earnings grow after graduation, how much outcomes vary between graduates, or which programs serve populations too small to appear in any dataset.
Opportunity Data exists to surface the structure that summary statistics hide. We track earnings spread and trajectory (how earnings change and vary at one, five, and ten years after graduation) across short-term certificates, associate degrees, and bachelor's degrees at more than 900 institutions in 33 states. Interactive tools let you compare programs by college, by field of study, and against value-added benchmarks that account for the students an institution actually serves.
The goal is not to replace accountability. It is to make accountability possible. When more than half the programs in a state are invisible to the data, and the visible ones are reduced to a single figure, we are making policy on incomplete evidence. This project is an attempt to do better.
Questions about the data, interested in collaborating, or have feedback? Send a message.
