Assessments of the entry-level market often rely on different statistics with different definitions and time windows, which can point in opposite directions.
Holding each metric constant and reading the data by field gives a more specific picture: the figures that held steady and the figures that fell point in different directions.
Placement held steady; full-time employment fell
A recent placement figure is sometimes compared against a higher one from a few years ago and read as a tight but healthy market. The two numbers usually come from different surveys with different definitions and time windows, so they are not comparable.
Hold one metric constant instead. The share of bachelor's graduates employed or enrolled in further education within six months has barely moved across the last three classes.
| Graduating class | Employed or enrolled (6 mo) | Full-time employed (6 mo) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 86.0% | 59.1% |
| 2023 | 84.7% | 57.2% |
| 2024 | 85.7% | <55% |
Source: NACE First Destination surveys, classes of 2022 to 2024.
By the broad metric, nothing fell. The most recent figure (85.7%) is essentially what it was three years earlier. The number that did fall is the one rarely shown: full-time employment within six months, which slid from 59.1% for the class of 2022 to 57.2% for 2023 and under 55% for 2024. The headline rate holds steady because continuing education and part-time or non-degree work absorb the graduates that full-time hiring no longer does.
New graduates lost their unemployment edge
A frequently cited figure is that unemployment for degree holders sits under 3%, well below the rate for everyone else. That figure describes every worker who holds a bachelor's degree, at any age and any stage of a career. It does not describe a 22-year-old entering the market this spring.
For recent graduates specifically, the New York Fed puts unemployment at 5.7% in late 2025 and early 2026, above the roughly 4.2% rate for all workers. New graduates are now doing worse than the general workforce, reversing the long-standing pattern in which the degree bought a lower jobless rate. Underemployment, the share working in jobs that do not require a degree, sits around 41%. For this year's graduates, the relevant figure is the recent-graduate rate, not the all-degree-holder rate.
Seasonal congestion versus a level shift in entry-level hiring
Competition is highest right at graduation and eases over the summer, and that seasonal congestion clears each year. A separate question is whether the entry-level white-collar roles that served as the traditional on-ramp are being automated and consolidated. The New York Fed names AI absorption of those first jobs as a driver of elevated recent-grad unemployment.
The distinction matters: if entry-level hiring has shifted to a lower level rather than being seasonally crowded, the expectation that competition eases after summer would not hold.
Most lower-unemployment fields also pay below the recent-grad median
Health, education, and social services are often cited as fields still hiring near normal levels. Of the roughly 2 million bachelor's degrees awarded in 2023, those three fields together account for about 18.9% of graduates. Most of that block is one field doing very different things.
| Field group | Bachelor's degrees, 2023 | Share of all BAs |
|---|---|---|
| Health professions (all) | 254,905 | 12.8% |
| of which nursing | 153,349 | 7.7% |
| of which non-nursing health | 101,556 | 5.1% |
| Education | 88,268 | 4.4% |
| Public administration & social services | 31,938 | 1.6% |
| Health + education + social services | 375,111 | 18.9% |
Source: IPEDS 2023 Completions, bachelor's degrees, first majors. Total = 1,985,289.
Nursing alone is 7.7 of those 18.9 points, and nursing is the one field in the group that pairs low unemployment with above-median pay. Strip it out and the rest of the "safe" block, about 11% of all graduates, heads into stable work that pays below the recent-grad median.
| Major | Unemployment | Early-career wage |
|---|---|---|
| Social services | 1.9% | $43,000 |
| Elementary education | 1.2% | $45,000 |
| Secondary education | 2.1% | $45,300 |
| Special education | 0.7% | $46,000 |
| Nursing | 2.1% | $70,000 |
| All recent grads (median) | 4.2% | $58,000 |
Source: New York Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, outcomes by major, updated February 2026. Recent grads age 22 to 27.
The block thus splits into two cases. Nursing graduates are in a strong position. The rest of the group has low unemployment largely because the fields pay below the recent-grad median, which limits competition. Low unemployment alone does not establish a strong outcome without accounting for pay.
Elevated unemployment is not concentrated in tech
Ranked by recent-grad unemployment, the top of the major-by-major list is a mix of tech, the arts, the humanities, and the social sciences, rather than tech alone.
| Major | Unemployment | Rate | Field |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropology | 7.9% | Not tech | |
| Computer engineering | 7.8% | Tech | |
| Fine arts | 7.7% | Not tech | |
| Computer science | 7.0% | Tech | |
| Performing arts | 7.0% | Not tech | |
| Architecture | 6.8% | Not tech | |
| Art history | 6.7% | Not tech | |
| Physics | 6.6% | Not tech | |
| Early childhood education | 6.6% | Not tech | |
| All recent grads | 4.2% |
Source: New York Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, outcomes by major, updated February 2026.
Seven of the nine highest-unemployment majors are not tech, and one, early childhood education, sits in the group often described as safe. Tech is elevated, but it does not stand alone.
The data shows two distinct patterns. Computer science and computer engineering have high unemployment but low underemployment (around 16% to 19%): the difficulty is getting in the door, and those who do land degree-level work. The liberal arts and social sciences show the opposite. Criminal justice runs at 65.8% underemployment, performing arts at 63.9%, communications at 53%, sociology at 52%; these fields place graduates, often into jobs that never required the degree. Framing the issue as tech-specific omits both: elevated unemployment in several humanities and social-science fields, and elevated underemployment across most generalist fields.
Even within STEM, it is the computer fields
The "tech and related fields" grouping also includes engineering, most of which shows low unemployment. The exposure is specific to the computer disciplines.
| Engineering field | Unemployment | Early-career wage |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace | 2.2% | $85,000 |
| Civil | 2.3% | $75,000 |
| Electrical | 3.2% | $82,000 |
| Mechanical | 4.4% | $80,000 |
| Chemical | 4.7% | $85,000 |
| Computer engineering | 7.8% | $90,000 |
| Computer science | 7.0% | $87,000 |
Source: New York Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, outcomes by major, updated February 2026.
The AI and post-boom correction lands on the software side. Most engineering disciplines sit between 2% and 5% unemployment with strong pay. Grouping them under "tech" overstates how broad the exposure is.
Rate measures the odds; headcount measures the scale
An unemployment rate gives the odds for a given graduate. It does not give the number of people affected. A field can have a high rate and account for relatively few unemployed graduates if it is small, while a lower-rate field can carry a larger absolute number because it is large. Combining the New York Fed rates with the federal degree counts shows where the larger absolute numbers fall.
Estimated unemployed new graduates, applying each field's rate to its 2023 graduating class:
| Field | Graduates | Rate | Estimated unemployed | Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Psychology | 134,012 | 5.0% | 6,700 | |
| Computer science | 93,893 | 7.0% | 6,570 | |
| Business management | 156,903 | 3.8% | 5,960 | |
| Biology | 83,926 | 4.3% | 3,610 | |
| Nursing | 153,349 | 2.1% | 3,220 | |
| Performing arts | 45,689 | 7.0% | 3,200 |
Graduate counts: IPEDS 2023 Completions. Rates: New York Fed.
Psychology, at a 5.0% rate, produces more unemployed new graduates than computer science does at 7.0%, because it graduates far more people. Business management is close behind on a 3.8% rate. The field with the highest rate is not the field with the most unemployed graduates.
For underemployment, working in a job that does not require the degree, the gap between rate and scale is even wider. Computer science has low underemployment, so despite its size it sits near the bottom on headcount, while the large generalist fields dominate.
| Field | Graduates | Rate | Estimated underemployed | Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business management | 156,903 | 52.6% | 82,500 | |
| Psychology | 134,012 | 48.3% | 64,700 | |
| Biology | 83,926 | 51.1% | 42,900 | |
| Criminal justice | 55,252 | 65.8% | 36,400 | |
| Computer science | 93,893 | 19.1% | 17,900 | |
| Computer engineering | 11,987 | 15.8% | 1,900 |
Graduate counts: IPEDS 2023 Completions. Rates: New York Fed.
Concentration is a claim about rates; it does not indicate how many graduates are affected. By headcount, the largest absolute numbers fall in business, psychology, and biology rather than tech. You can explore every field on all four dimensions at once in the field-level explorer.
Summary of findings
Placement of some kind held up. Full-time employment within six months fell, recent graduates no longer have the lower unemployment rate the degree used to provide, and elevated risk runs across tech, the arts, the humanities, and the social sciences rather than one corner. The fields with the lowest unemployment in this group mostly pay below the recent-grad median, with nursing as the exception.
The broad placement rate held steady while full-time employment within six months fell. Full-time employment, underemployment, and pay vary widely by field.
These patterns carry field-specific implications. Graduates in nursing or a licensed health field are well positioned. Graduates in lower-wage secure fields can expect stability at below-median pay. In fields with high underemployment, the relevant risk is working outside degree-level roles. Graduates in computer science face a 7% unemployment rate, above the all-recent-grad rate of 4.2%.
Sources: IPEDS 2023 Completions (bachelor's degrees, first majors); New York Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, outcomes by major, updated February 2026 (recent grads age 22 to 27); NACE First Destination surveys, classes of 2022 to 2024; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2025. Underlying field-level tables are available on request.